TORONTO — The consumer messaging is coming through loud and clear: winter vacation packages could cost more this winter, with high demand for room inventory impacting selection and availability.
The question is, will notoriously late-booking Canadian travellers take the advice to heart and book early?
Heading into this past weekend, a report from CTV News laid it out: in this first full winter with Cuba still at an orange-level travel advisory and no scheduled service from Canada, demand for Mexico and Caribbean sun destinations is set to spike for winter 2026-2027.
Viewers heard that a sun package that normally might have cost $1,391 per person in 2025, with flights and resort from Toronto to Varadero, is now averaging $1,824 per person for a comparable alternative in other winter sun destinations.
“That’s $433 more per traveller, which is $1,732 for a group of four travellers … a substantial increase.”
MORE MARKETS THAN JUST CANADA
What viewers might not consider is that Mexico and Caribbean room inventory demand will see pressure from Cuba’s other big inbound markets too.
None of those markets deliver anything near Canada’s numbers – more than 1 million annually in a typical year.
But the UK (240,000), Germany (175,000) and France (150,000) are all major contributors in normal times for Cuba – and all three (and more) are still warning their residents against non-essential Cuba travel, just like Canada.
All those travellers and more are now looking for alternate sun destinations this winter. Not to mention the millions who already vacation in Mexico and the Caribbean, especially from the U.S.
DRIVING THE MESSAGE HOME
In case Canadian consumers don’t get the message from news reports, some travel retailers are taking matters into their own hands.
In its Top 10 list of reasons urging early bookings for winter 2026-2027 getaways, tripcentral.ca tells clients: “Cuba isn’t coming back in time for the 2026–2027 season. The hundreds of thousands of Canadians who would normally be booking Varadero and Cayo Coco are entering the same booking pool as everyone else – for a fixed number of hotel rooms and charter seats in the Dominican Republic, Mexico and the wider Caribbean.”
The list highlights pricing pressures, citing the less-than-a-day jump in price of a package to Mexico from $1,601 per person to $3,300 per person back in February 2026 in the immediate wake of the Cuba repatriation flights and travel advisory.
Other major factors include the upward climb of overall travel costs, especially since the war, with increases of 26.7% (airfare), 11% (overall travel), lodging (5.1%) and dining out (3.5%) year over year in May 2026 vs. May 2025.
