TORONTO — Global car rental prices are expected to remain relatively stable in 2026-27, with only moderate increases forecast across many major markets, according to American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT).

In its latest Ground Monitor, Amex GBT forecasts rental rates in both Canada and the United States will rise between 1.5% and 2%.

Restrained GDP growth and improved vehicle supply are expected to help keep increases modest, although rising auto insurance costs could add upward pressure.

Amex GBT is also seeing what it describes as “significant growth” in both the number and value of city surcharges in North America. These include airport fees and day-of-week charges that were once limited to a smaller number of markets but are now becoming more common.

“Looking globally, we expect prices to be stable, with moderate increases in geographies where local conditions – including taxes and the availability of cars to rent – could push up prices,” said Sara Andell, Director of Consulting Strategy, Amex GBT Consulting.

REGIONAL OUTLOOK VARIES

Outside North America, Australia is forecast to see rental rate increases of 3% to 3.4%.

In Latin America, Brazil and Chile are expected to post increases of between 2% and 4%, supported by healthy leisure and corporate demand.

Across Europe, increases are forecast to remain relatively modest in most markets.

The Netherlands is a notable exception, with rates expected to climb between 4% and 5% as changes to motor vehicle taxes increase the cost of ownership for rental fleets.

France and Spain are expected to remain essentially flat, with increases of no more than 0.5%. Germany is forecast to rise between 1% and 2%, Scandinavia between 1% and 2.5% and the United Kingdom between 0.6% and 1.3%.

RENT OR RIDE HAIL?

The Ground Monitor also examines when it may make more financial sense for travellers to rent a vehicle or use ride-hailing services.

Amex GBT modelled airport-to-city-centre return journeys in its 10 largest U.S. car rental cities, factoring in local tolls and parking costs.

For a one-day rental, renting a car was cheaper than ride hail in five of the 10 cities examined.

When the rental period was extended to two days, ride hail was cheaper in every city.

Amex GBT notes, however, that multiple journeys or destinations where parking is free can shift the equation back in favour of renting.

SUPPLY & GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

Looking ahead, the report flags several factors that could affect rental costs.

Geopolitical disruption could pressure supplies of aluminum and helium used in vehicle and semiconductor production, while increasingly sophisticated vehicle technology is making cars more expensive to repair.

At the same time, improved vehicle availability is giving corporate travel programs more flexibility.

As providers rebuild fleet inventory following supply chain disruptions, Amex GBT says it is becoming less risky for companies to consolidate their rental programs with one or two providers.

That could give corporate travel buyers greater negotiating leverage in exchange for committed volume and potentially help secure better rates.

To read the full report, click here.