TORONTO — As the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran squeezes global oil supplies, travellers have valid reasons to worry about the cost and availability of flights as they plan their late spring and summer trips.
The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that European countries could run low on jet fuel within weeks, forcing the continent’s airlines and carriers that fly to Europe to significantly reduce flights.
Many airlines have already raised checked bag fees or added fuel surcharges as the global price of jet fuel increased from about US$99 per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 a barrel at the beginning of April.
In a sign of the conflict’s ongoing repercussions for travel, Air Canada said Friday it planned to suspend its service to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport from June 1 until Oct. 25 to lower its fuel costs.
Other airlines, ranging from U.S. carriers like United and Delta to Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines and and Cathay Pacific in Europe and Asia, have reduced routes and either increased ticket prices or said they would hike them if the war keeps oil from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s very hard for the airlines to make predictions in this environment, so they’re going to be conservative, and that’s why it’s likely that their prices will remain elevated for some time until things really stabilize,” said Shye Gilad, a former airline captain who now teaches at Georgetown University’s business school.
While consumers may be tempted to see if the war ends before buying airline tickets, the “wait-and-see” approach to booking flights is riskier this year, travel experts say, especially the longer the war goes on and the closer to summer and other peak travel periods it gets.
“Presuming there is a lasting ceasefire – or better yet, peace agreement – it will take a few months for normal levels of jet fuel production and delivery to resume,” said airline industry analyst Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group.
Iran’s reversal on Saturday of its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump’s insistence on maintaining a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports illustrated the shakiness of prospects for oil flowing reliably again from the Persian Gulf and with it, an easing of the price pressure on airlines and their customers.
“My advice to travellers is this: If you find a flight whose schedule fits yours, with a fare you can afford, and on an airline you can at least tolerate, book it,” said Harteveldt. “But – and I cannot emphasize this enough – do not book a Basic Economy fare,” the cheapest but also the most restrictive airline ticket class.
Along with charging for checked bags and seat selection, most North American airlines do not give refunds or travel credits to passengers with Basic Economy tickets if they don’t cancel their trips within 24 hours of purchase. Policies may vary, but spending more for a Standard Economy ticket provides more flexibility, according to Harteveldt.
Paying more up-front for a refundable ticket also prove advantageous because “if the prices start to dramatically change, you can cancel and rebook for the better price,” Gilad said.
Travel experts say that for now, longstanding booking guidance offers a baseline for how early to reserve a flight to get the lowest airfare: international flights are typically the cheapest about two to five months in advance, and domestic trips about three to six weeks out.
Last-minute bookings and other situations that typically command higher prices are likely to keep climbing, Gilad said.
“Remember, especially if you’re traveling on the major airlines, they’re going to have more ability to adjust fares. If you book too close to your travel date, you’re going to pay more,” he said. “The farther out you can book, the better.”