WASHINGTON, DC — The U.S. Travel Association is sounding the alarm over declining international tourism, with new data projecting an almost US$11 billion drop in visitor spending in 2026.

Inflation-adjusted spending by international visitors is expected to fall 6.3% to $163 billion this year. And despite a record 2.44 billion domestic trips, total inflation-adjusted U.S. travel spending is forecast to decline 0.7% to $1.35 trillion.

The numbers were released two days after the U.S. midterm elections, with the association urging Congress to take action on everything from visa processing to airport operations.

“The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher,” said Geoff Freeman, President and CEO, U.S. Travel Association. “Travel supports American workers and communities. Congress has a December deadline to protect holiday travel and a new year to reverse the loss of international visitors.”

The morning after the midterms, tour operators and travel retailers told Travelweek they’ll be watching for any ‘bluenami’ impact on Canadian outbound travel – but no one expects an overnight booking boom.

COMPETITORS ARE GAINING GROUND

According to the latest figures, international arrivals to the U.S. are projected to reach 67.8 million in 2026, down 14.6% from 79.4 million in 2019.

The new numbers also show competing destinations continuing to gain ground.

France is forecast to welcome 111.9 million international visitors this year, up 23.1% from 2019. Spain is looking at 106.6 million arrivals, an increase of 27.7% vs. 2019, while Japan is projected to reach 44.9 million, up 40.7% from 2019.

Worldwide international arrivals are expected to reach 1.64 billion, an increase of 11.7% over 2019.

The U.S. Travel Association doesn’t expect American international arrivals to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. The country’s share of global long-haul arrivals has already slipped from 10.3% in 2019 to 7.7% in 2026, with a further decline to 7.1% projected by 2030.

The latest figures come just over a month after Freeman warned that the U.S. was on track for two million fewer international visitors in 2026.

Travel prices aren’t helping either. They’re forecast to rise 7.2% this year, more than double the overall inflation rate of 3.4%.

A PUSH TO BRING VISITORS BACK

There’s plenty at stake for the U.S. economy. Travel supports more than 15 million American jobs and generates $92 billion in state and local taxes.

Following a September meeting with President Trump, industry leaders proposed a goal of welcoming 100 million international visitors annually by 2030. Reaching that target could generate an additional $68 billion in annual visitor spending and support more than 350,000 additional jobs.

The association is calling on Congress to ensure uninterrupted pay for TSA officers and air traffic controllers during future government funding lapses, with a Dec. 11 deadline for action.

Looking to 2027, its priorities include restoring full funding for Brand USA. In 2025 the government cut Brand USA’s budget by 80%, from US$100 million annually to $20 million.

Other priorities include expanding visa processing, removing unnecessary entry barriers and fees and modernizing airport security and air traffic control.

“The current Congress must keep America moving this holiday season. The next Congress must help America compete,” said Freeman. “We have the opportunity to deliver a better travel experience for Americans and bring more international spending and jobs back to our communities. Standing still is not a strategy.”