TORONTO — The United States is facing a sharp tourism downturn as more Canadians opt to stay north of the border. According to a new report from the U.S. Travel Association, international visitor spending in the U.S. is expected to fall by 3.2% in 2025 – a loss of about US$5.7 billion compared to last year.

As reported by CBC News, the association largely blames the slump on a continuing decline in Canadian travel south, a trend that began after U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office and his increasingly strained relationship with Canada. The data shows Canadian air arrivals dropped 27% in September compared with a year earlier, while land crossings fell 35%.

Trade tensions and traveller sentiment

The cooling of travel interest comes amid ongoing political and trade friction. Since January, the Trump administration has reignited trade disputes with Canada and introduced new tariffs. He has also referred to Canada as “the 51st state” and recently walked away from trade talks after an anti-tariff campaign by Ontario’s government.

According to CBC News, America’s travel industry — once a bright spot for the U.S. economy — is now in deficit territory. The association projects a travel trade deficit of nearly $70 billion for 2025, as more Americans travel abroad than international visitors enter the country.

Canadians cite discomfort and border concerns

A new Angus Reid poll shows 70% of Canadians are uneasy about visiting the U.S. this winter. Respondents cited a desire to “stand up for Canada,” discomfort with the political climate, and tougher border security as key reasons.

The Trump administration’s new registration rule for long-stay visitors has also added to concerns. The policy requires Canadians staying more than 29 days to register at the border, where they will be photographed, fingerprinted and charged a $30 US fee.

Border states like New York and Washington are already feeling the pinch. Tourism boards in Buffalo, Seattle and Upstate New York have launched promotions with discounts and special offers in hopes of drawing Canadians back this winter.

Hope for a rebound

Despite the current downturn, the U.S. Travel Association expects recovery ahead. Major upcoming events – including the FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th anniversary, and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics – could help restore international visitor numbers, with arrivals projected to reach record highs by 2029.