TORONTO — Canadian airlines pulled back in a big way from the United States over the past year and boosted flight volumes elsewhere — especially the Caribbean — with no sign of a cross-border rebound on the horizon.

Figures from aviation data firm Cirium show that Canada-U.S. flight volumes fell more than 14 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter among Canada’s five largest carriers.

Florida, California and Nevada saw some of the biggest drops in capacity from Canadian carriers, with volumes to Las Vegas down by a third from a year earlier.

As passengers looked farther afield, airlines ramped up flight volumes in the Caribbean and South America — by 20 per cent for Air Canada and 81 per cent for WestJet, according to Cirium.

The number of domestic flights and trips to Europe and Asia is also up from 2024 as airlines scrambled to rejig their networks.

Former transport professor Jacques Roy says Canadians’ distaste for U.S. visits triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff war and social policies nonetheless marks a problem for airlines north of the border, which will have to compete in more crowded fields overseas and domestically.

“There is a natural reaction from Canadian travellers, who try to get their suntan from other destinations,” he said.

Nor are there signs of a return to business as usual. Canadian airline schedules show a 15 per cent drop in flight volumes during the first three months of this year compared to 2025 — when people had already started to shy away from travel to a country whose leader spouted 51st-state rhetoric in reference to its northern neighbour.

“The airlines were hoping that this was just going to be a flash in the pan … that it would eventually settle back into a return to sun destinations by the time the fourth quarter rolled along,” said John Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

That didn’t happen. “And the first quarter doesn’t look much brighter.”

On the plus side, Canadians’ appetite for winter air travel has persisted, despite trips that are farther from home and sometimes harder on the wallet.

Air Canada launched more than a dozen fresh routes and several new destinations in the Caribbean and South America over the last few months.

Some beachy getaway spots saw massive surges. As demand shifted, WestJet increased flights to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic last quarter to 1,018 from 320 a year earlier.

Canadian flight volumes to Cancun, Mexico, jumped by 35 per cent, and to Central America by nearly a third.

“Canadians are moving and they’re trying different destinations,” Gradek said.