GENEVA — Think air travel is off the charts now? According to IATAʻs just-released Long Term Demand Projections (LTDP), global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050.

“The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Under IATA’s mid-range scenario, demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% (2024-2050) from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.

Variable include long-term economic and population growth, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development.

Aviation growth catalyzes opportunities, including jobs, around the world, and that makes doubled travel demand good news for global economic and social development, Walsh added.

Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest growing regions over 2024-2050, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%.

According to IATA, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a “permanent structural shift” in global aviation demand, one that created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under high-growth scenarios.

IATA also notes that while long-term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating gradually.