TORONTO — A moment of silence for a beloved industry colleague opened yesterday’s Discover America Canada webinar, held to address current geopolitical concerns and highlight the resilience of Travel and Tourism.

Hosted by Discover America Canada’s Raina Williams, Vice President, and Stephen Fine, Secretary Treasurer, the session began with a moving tribute to Casey Canevari, Director, Global Trade Development (Canada) for Brand USA, who passed away suddenly last week while in Toronto at the age of 43.

Calling him a “cherished member of our industry,” Williams led the moment of silence before introducing Jennifer Hendry, Lead Research Associate, Canadian Tourism Research Institute Lead, Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada, who fondly remembered Canevari for his love for tourism.

“Travel & Tourism has survived each crisis in the 25 years that I’ve been analyzing travel data. The sector is resilient because Canadians love to travel – and Casey knew that and enthusiastically believed in the product offered by American destinations,” said Hendry.

But despite the plethora of stellar destinations in the United States that Canevari had passionately promoted, Canadian visitation has significantly dipped in recent months amid an ongoing trade war and economic concerns.

Citing data from The Conference Board of Canada’s most recent travel intention survey, Hendry noted that a normal summer season would see nearly half of respondents reporting outbound trips destined for the United States – that share is currently sitting at just 26%. At the same time, a larger share of respondents is planning summer travel to Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Caribbean, Mexico and South and Central America.

“We know that many Canadians are not opting to go to the U.S., and that the market is reacting to current conditions with slow-forward bookings,” said Hendry. “Travel intentions are down but millions of Canadians are still crossing the border each month and will continue to do so this summer.”

WHO’S GOING TO THE U.S. AND WHERE?

According to the survey, more than half of respondents who said they still plan on travelling to the United States this summer reside in Ontario and Quebec. A larger share of intended transborder travel was reported by residents of Alberta.

This summer’s transborder traveller is also younger than in the past, with 42% aged 18-34, up from 29% the previous summer.

“In fact, those youngest travellers saw the smallest drop in their overall U.S. travel intentions compared to last summer and are also more likely than other outbound travellers to be planning a transborder trip,” said Hendry.

The top three U.S. destinations for summer travel, based on the survey, are once again Florida, California and New York. Making their way to the top five are Arizona and Texas.

OVERCOMING CHALLENGES

There’s no question that the current political environment has created economic uncertainty, increased the price of many travel products and, most importantly, “impacted our feeling of being welcome,” said Hendry. Though these are significant challenges to overcome, Hendry was quick to remind viewers of the market’s resilience, as proven by previous crises like the COVID pandemic and SARS.

Hendry broke down the key challenges that may be impacting travel to the United States:

• The ‘Trump Effect’: Although much of today’s negative perceptions of the U.S. can be traced back to President Trump and his administration’s policies and tariffs, Hendry noted that, as history has shown, this may not have as much of an impact on inbound travel as one would think. Following his first inauguration in 2017, The Conference Board of Canada found that by the end of that year, one-third of survey respondents said they had purposely opted not to travel to the U.S., choosing to travel elsewhere. “But despite these reports, we did not see these emotion-based reactions translate into lower trip activities in 2017, 2018 or 2019,” said Hendry. “So, this taught us that what people say they do, doesn’t necessarily translate into action.”

• Economic pressures: Affordability remains a key factor in travel decisions, but recent data shows Canadians continue to prioritize travel despite economic challenges. Nearly half of consumers say they’re cutting costs in other areas to maintain their travel plans – opting for stays with family and friends, booking economy fares, and seeking special deals and incentives. However, a weaker loonie and ongoing political and economic instability are expected to impact cross-border travel this summer. According to the latest national forecast, the exchange rate is projected to fall by 6.8% this year, with the Canadian dollar currently sitting at 72 cents. Should it dip into the 60-cent range, it could further influence consumer travel decisions. Still, outbound travel remains strong, underscoring Canadians’ commitment to travel – even amid inflation, tariffs, and rising household costs.

• Canadian sentiment: A growing sense of being unwelcome is dampening demand for the U.S., especially for road trips. Hendry noted that this challenge may be the hardest to overcome, more than political views and economic hardships. Although the Canada-U.S. travel relationship has weathered disruptions in the past – from 9/11 to the pandemic – this time is different. New entry requirements for land travel and anti-Canada rhetoric are fuelling hesitation, even among travellers eager to return. Despite this, there is optimism. Direct air capacity between the two countries is holding steady at 10 million seats, suggesting underlying demand remains. For U.S. destinations, the message is clear: rebuilding Canadian confidence must be a priority. Agents, suppliers, and tourism boards can play a vital role in reshaping the narrative and restoring Canada’s trust in cross-border travel.

TIPS ON HOW TO SELL & MARKET THE U.S.

In his closing remarks, Secretary Treasurer Fine shared insights into what Canadian travellers are currently looking for in U.S. destinations, citing two key factors: a sense of being welcomed and appreciated, and financial incentives that help offset the unfavourable exchange rate.

“U.S. destinations should focus on highlighting their own unique offerings rather than promoting the U.S. as a whole,” he said, adding that pro-Canadian social media messaging – such as Canadian flag imagery or supportive initiatives like Colorado’s recent ‘Canada Friendship Day’ – can go a long way in building goodwill.

Discover America Canada plans to send out an email to its members next week, outlining examples of recent initiatives from U.S. destinations that have effectively targeted Canadian visitors. The update will feature four or five destinations that have launched noteworthy programs, with suggestions on how Canadian travel marketers can incorporate these efforts into their own campaigns.

In terms of strategy, Fine encouraged a focus on “small wins” and niche marketing. Now is not the time for broad-brush campaigns, he said. “Targeting specific segments of the Canadian market – such as younger travellers who may be less concerned about the political climate – may yield better results.”

Finally, Discover America Canada is exploring the development of a toolkit for U.S. destination marketing organizations (DMOs), providing them with concrete ideas and assets for pro-Canada messaging. The upcoming member email will serve as a first step toward that initiative, with the goal of expanding it further in the future.

For more information about Discover America Canada, go to https://discoveramericacanada.org/.